in its original form, an article written for U.S. JGOFS News
U.S. JGOFS Synthesis And Modeling Project Gets Underway
by Robert Armstrong
The U.S. JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP) will
be launched this summer at a workshop on the role of oceanic
processes in the global carbon cycle. To be held Aug. 13-19 in
Durham, New Hampshire, the workshop will bring together
empiricists and modelers for a week of intense discussion on how
to achieve the central JGOFS goals of characterizing the
processes controlling oceanic carbon fluxes on a global scale and
predicting the responses of oceanic biogeochemical processes to
anthropogenic perturbation.
The main legacy of this component of U.S. JGOFS will be
the synthesis of knowledge gained from field and modeling studies
into a set of models that reflect our current understanding of
how oceanic processes affect the global carbon cycle. Attaining
this goal will be neither simple nor straightforward, requiring
as it must the synthesis and modeling of knowledge gained from
the global survey of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the ocean, the time-
series programs at Hawaii and Bermuda, the U.S. process studies
in the North Atlantic, equatorial Pacific, Arabian Sea and
Southern Ocean, and JGOFS studies conducted by our international
partners.
The SMP steering committee considers it essential that
the investigators who made measurements during these studies
participate actively in the synthesis and modeling effort. The
goal is to ensure that full and appropriate use be made of the
findings of these investigations. Among the purposes of the
workshop are to foster relationships between empiricists and
modelers and to emphasize the committee's commitment to the
continuing collaboration that will be necessary to achieve the
goals of the synthesis and modeling project and, through them,
the central goals of JGOFS.
The specific objectives of this workshop are:
- to present and discuss critical knowledge gained from
JGOFS process and time-series studies and the CO2 survey
program, with a focus on how this and related knowledge
will allow development of regional and global syntheses
and models;
- to determine the nature of the syntheses that must be
achieved within each of the above study areas to enable
results from these areas to be scaled globally;
- to develop and endorse a set of specific objectives that
can be attained within the time frame of the SMP;
- to write an implementation plan that will guide future
SMP activities.
In support of these purposes, the SMP steering committee
has proposed some provisional goals, which are to be discussed at
the workshop:
- to synthesize our knowledge of inorganic and organic
carbon inventories, both natural and anthropogenic;
- to identify the first-order processes that control the
partitioning of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere,
with an ultimate view towards synthesis and prediction,
noting that the unique contribution of JGOFS will be an
improved understanding of the partitioning of carbon
among oceanic reservoirs and its implications for the
exchange between the ocean and atmosphere;
- to determine the mechanisms responsible for spatial and
temporal variability and to develop methods for
extrapolating the cumulative effects of biogeochemical
and physical processes to seasonal, annual and
interannual time scales and to regional and global
spatial scales;
- to improve our ability to predict the role of oceanic
processes in determining the future partitioning of
carbon between the ocean and atmosphere and to evaluate
uncertainties and identify gaps in our knowledge.
SMP steering committee
Jorge Sarmiento of Princeton University is chairman of
the SMP steering committee. Members are Robert Armstrong of
Princeton, who is serving as SMP project scientist, Richard
Barber of Duke University, Eileen Hofmann of Old Dominion
University, Marlon Lewis of Dalhousie University, Dennis
McGillicuddy of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Anthony
Michaels of Bermuda Biological Station for Research and James
Murray of the University of Washington.