in its original form, an article written for U.S. JGOFS News

U.S. JGOFS Synthesis And Modeling Project Gets Underway

by Robert Armstrong

The U.S. JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP) will be launched this summer at a workshop on the role of oceanic processes in the global carbon cycle. To be held Aug. 13-19 in Durham, New Hampshire, the workshop will bring together empiricists and modelers for a week of intense discussion on how to achieve the central JGOFS goals of characterizing the processes controlling oceanic carbon fluxes on a global scale and predicting the responses of oceanic biogeochemical processes to anthropogenic perturbation.

The main legacy of this component of U.S. JGOFS will be the synthesis of knowledge gained from field and modeling studies into a set of models that reflect our current understanding of how oceanic processes affect the global carbon cycle. Attaining this goal will be neither simple nor straightforward, requiring as it must the synthesis and modeling of knowledge gained from the global survey of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the ocean, the time- series programs at Hawaii and Bermuda, the U.S. process studies in the North Atlantic, equatorial Pacific, Arabian Sea and Southern Ocean, and JGOFS studies conducted by our international partners.

The SMP steering committee considers it essential that the investigators who made measurements during these studies participate actively in the synthesis and modeling effort. The goal is to ensure that full and appropriate use be made of the findings of these investigations. Among the purposes of the workshop are to foster relationships between empiricists and modelers and to emphasize the committee's commitment to the continuing collaboration that will be necessary to achieve the goals of the synthesis and modeling project and, through them, the central goals of JGOFS. The specific objectives of this workshop are:

to present and discuss critical knowledge gained from JGOFS process and time-series studies and the CO2 survey program, with a focus on how this and related knowledge will allow development of regional and global syntheses and models;
to determine the nature of the syntheses that must be achieved within each of the above study areas to enable results from these areas to be scaled globally;
to develop and endorse a set of specific objectives that can be attained within the time frame of the SMP;
to write an implementation plan that will guide future SMP activities.

In support of these purposes, the SMP steering committee has proposed some provisional goals, which are to be discussed at the workshop:

to synthesize our knowledge of inorganic and organic carbon inventories, both natural and anthropogenic;
to identify the first-order processes that control the partitioning of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, with an ultimate view towards synthesis and prediction, noting that the unique contribution of JGOFS will be an improved understanding of the partitioning of carbon among oceanic reservoirs and its implications for the exchange between the ocean and atmosphere;
to determine the mechanisms responsible for spatial and temporal variability and to develop methods for extrapolating the cumulative effects of biogeochemical and physical processes to seasonal, annual and interannual time scales and to regional and global spatial scales;
to improve our ability to predict the role of oceanic processes in determining the future partitioning of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere and to evaluate uncertainties and identify gaps in our knowledge.

SMP steering committee

Jorge Sarmiento of Princeton University is chairman of the SMP steering committee. Members are Robert Armstrong of Princeton, who is serving as SMP project scientist, Richard Barber of Duke University, Eileen Hofmann of Old Dominion University, Marlon Lewis of Dalhousie University, Dennis McGillicuddy of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Anthony Michaels of Bermuda Biological Station for Research and James Murray of the University of Washington.