The third summer meeting of the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project will take place on July 13-17, 1998, in Durham, New Hampshire. The topic of the workshop will be:

THE RESPONSE OF OCEAN BIOLOGY AND BIOGEOCHEMISTRY TO GLOBAL WARMING

One of the major new developments in model studies of global climate change is the coupling of full primitive equation ocean general circulation models (GCM's) to atmospheric GCM's. The ocean GCM's have only recently begun to be analyzed for processes that would be relevant to ocean biology and the marine carbon cycle. These analyses reveal dramatic changes. The global warming of >2 deg C by the middle of next century is no surprise. Perhaps more significant from the biogeochemical point of view is the very large increase in near surface vertical stratification that is caused by warming in low latitudes and freshening in high latitudes. The effect of this stratification is particularly dramatic in the high latitudes, where it causes a large reduction in deep water formation and would very likely have a large impact on ocean biology throughout the entire North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Other changes that occur are the modifications in carbon chemistry that result from the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (e.g., reduced carbonate ion concentration), and changes in cloud cover and micronutrient delivery by dust, neither of which can be predicted reliably by coupled climate models.

It is crucial that we understand how the changes in dynamics and chemistry will affect the the marine carbon cycle. As our understanding of the oceanic response to global climate change improves, we are better able to apply a more detailed understanding of ocean biological processes to hypothesize what these changes might be. The summer 1998 SMP Scientific Workshop will draw together an international group of experts on the interaction between ocean biology and biogeochemistry and ocean dynamics with experts on the response of ocean dynamics to global warming. The purpose of the meeting will be to exchange information between these communities and identify the major issues that need to be addressed in order to make progress on addressing this issue. The results of the meeting will be written up and distributed widely. Major aims of the meeting will be to draw upon the knowledge that has been gained by JGOFS field studies, and use the report to help focus future research within the JGOFS SMP.

PROPOSED AGENDA

                               Monday AM                                  

I.- INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION                                           

Coupled climate models                           tba                      

Carbon system changes                            Sarmiento                

Biogeochemical responses and feedbacks           McCarthy                 
(discussion of Denman's IPCC Chapter?)                                    

II.- PROCESSES (for all process talks, present "state of the art" and     
expected changes under climate change scenarios)                          

                               Monday PM                                  

A.- Ocean Circulation Processes                                           

Large-scale circulation                          Marshall                 

Ocean tracers                                    Sabine                   

Variability-synoptic, mesoscale, interannual     Abott and Doney          

                              Tuesday AM                                  

B.- Primary Production                                                    

Macronutrients (N, P, Si) and temperature        Dugdale                  
limitation                                                                

Micronutrients/trace metals                      Falkowski                

Nitrogen cycle (fixation & denitrification)      Lipschultz               

                              Tuesday PM                                  

C.- Export Processes                                                      

Community structure and diatoms                  Barber                   

Dissolved organic matter                         T. Anderson              

Particulate organic matter                       Bishop and Jackson       

Redfield ratio variations                        Sambrotto                

                             Wednesday AM                                 

D.- Remineralization                                                      

Microbial processes                              Azam                     

Zooplankton processes                            Wishner                  

CaCO3 (corals, calcifiers, sediments)            Langdon and Berelson     

                              Wednesday PM                                

III.- POSTER SESSION (all participants invited to prepare posters on      
specific projects)                                                        

                              Thursday AM                                 

IV.- BIOGEOCHEMICAL AND ECOLOGICAL MODELING                               

Large-scale biogeochemical models                Najjar                   

Biogeographical regions                          Platt                    

community structure models                       Armstrong and Fasham     

                              Thursday PM                                 

V.- REGIONAL SYNTHESIS AND HISTORICAL ANALOGUES (present synthesis of     
carbon cycle and estimates of expected change based on oberved response   
to seasonal or interannual variability e.g. ENSO).                        

Tropics                                          Chai                     

Subtropics                                       Karl and Michaels        

Monsoon forced                                   S. Smith                 

Southern Ocean                                   W. Smith                 

                               Friday AM                                  

VI.- PALEORECORD                                                          

Glacial/Interglacial                             tba                      

Warm periods (Cretaceous/Tertiary                tba                      

Paleoecology                                     tba                      

                              Friday PM                                   

VI.- OPEN (plenary discussion and/or working groups)