The third summer meeting of the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project will take place on July 13-17, 1998, in Durham, New Hampshire. The topic of the workshop will be:
THE RESPONSE OF OCEAN BIOLOGY AND BIOGEOCHEMISTRY TO GLOBAL WARMING
One of the major new developments in model studies of global climate change is the coupling of full primitive equation ocean general circulation models (GCM's) to atmospheric GCM's. The ocean GCM's have only recently begun to be analyzed for processes that would be relevant to ocean biology and the marine carbon cycle. These analyses reveal dramatic changes. The global warming of >2 deg C by the middle of next century is no surprise. Perhaps more significant from the biogeochemical point of view is the very large increase in near surface vertical stratification that is caused by warming in low latitudes and freshening in high latitudes. The effect of this stratification is particularly dramatic in the high latitudes, where it causes a large reduction in deep water formation and would very likely have a large impact on ocean biology throughout the entire North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Other changes that occur are the modifications in carbon chemistry that result from the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (e.g., reduced carbonate ion concentration), and changes in cloud cover and micronutrient delivery by dust, neither of which can be predicted reliably by coupled climate models.
It is crucial that we understand how the changes in dynamics and chemistry will affect the the marine carbon cycle. As our understanding of the oceanic response to global climate change improves, we are better able to apply a more detailed understanding of ocean biological processes to hypothesize what these changes might be. The summer 1998 SMP Scientific Workshop will draw together an international group of experts on the interaction between ocean biology and biogeochemistry and ocean dynamics with experts on the response of ocean dynamics to global warming. The purpose of the meeting will be to exchange information between these communities and identify the major issues that need to be addressed in order to make progress on addressing this issue. The results of the meeting will be written up and distributed widely. Major aims of the meeting will be to draw upon the knowledge that has been gained by JGOFS field studies, and use the report to help focus future research within the JGOFS SMP.
PROPOSED AGENDA
Monday AM
I.- INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION
Coupled climate models tba
Carbon system changes Sarmiento
Biogeochemical responses and feedbacks McCarthy
(discussion of Denman's IPCC Chapter?)
II.- PROCESSES (for all process talks, present "state of the art" and
expected changes under climate change scenarios)
Monday PM
A.- Ocean Circulation Processes
Large-scale circulation Marshall
Ocean tracers Sabine
Variability-synoptic, mesoscale, interannual Abott and Doney
Tuesday AM
B.- Primary Production
Macronutrients (N, P, Si) and temperature Dugdale
limitation
Micronutrients/trace metals Falkowski
Nitrogen cycle (fixation & denitrification) Lipschultz
Tuesday PM
C.- Export Processes
Community structure and diatoms Barber
Dissolved organic matter T. Anderson
Particulate organic matter Bishop and Jackson
Redfield ratio variations Sambrotto
Wednesday AM
D.- Remineralization
Microbial processes Azam
Zooplankton processes Wishner
CaCO3 (corals, calcifiers, sediments) Langdon and Berelson
Wednesday PM
III.- POSTER SESSION (all participants invited to prepare posters on
specific projects)
Thursday AM
IV.- BIOGEOCHEMICAL AND ECOLOGICAL MODELING
Large-scale biogeochemical models Najjar
Biogeographical regions Platt
community structure models Armstrong and Fasham
Thursday PM
V.- REGIONAL SYNTHESIS AND HISTORICAL ANALOGUES (present synthesis of
carbon cycle and estimates of expected change based on oberved response
to seasonal or interannual variability e.g. ENSO).
Tropics Chai
Subtropics Karl and Michaels
Monsoon forced S. Smith
Southern Ocean W. Smith
Friday AM
VI.- PALEORECORD
Glacial/Interglacial tba
Warm periods (Cretaceous/Tertiary tba
Paleoecology tba
Friday PM
VI.- OPEN (plenary discussion and/or working groups)