--------------------------------------------------- Results of monte carlo simulations of the diagnostic box model of the seasonal carbon cycle at BATS/Station S combined written by Nicolas Gruber, 1996-2001 this is version 4.2 based on the program model.F developed during 1989 to 1992 -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------- general specifications for this model run : date : Mar 2 18:26 2004 name of experiment : bats_mc start time : 1983.0 end time : 2002.0 time step (years) : 0.00250 ------------------------------------------------- specifications for location : BERM/BATS combined ------------------------------------------------- specifications for solution scheme : Advection solution scheme used, i.e. u is solved for ------------------------------------------------- specifications for air-sea gasexchange : Wanninkhof (1992) quadratic piston velocity relationship used correction term for fCO2 oc [uatm]) : 0.00 multiplication factor for air-sea gasexchange : 1.0000 wind-speed coefficients of Isemer and Hasse ------------------------------------------------- specifications for vertical diffusion and entrainment : Matear (1995) entrainment scheme constant entrainment length : 12.0 multiplication factor for entrainment : 1.00 seasonally varying Kz seasonally varying dC/dz ratio of vertical dC13 and C gradients below the mixed layer [per mil kg umol-1] : -0.00520 multiplication factor for vertical diffusion : 1.00 ------------------------------------------------- specifications for horizontal advection : horizontal C gradient [umol kg-1 m-1] : 0.1100E-04 horizontal dC13 gradient [per mil m-1] : -.1000E-05 ------------------------------------------------- specification for net community production : change in dC13 of organic matter : 0.00 ------------------------------------------------- Additional comments : monte ------------------------------------------------- monte carlo parameters : parameter initial 1-sg optimum 1 1.0000 0.1000 0.0000 2 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 3 1.0000 0.5000 0.0000 4 0.0000 0.1000 0.0000 5 -0.0052 0.0008 0.0000 6 12.0000 3.0000 0.0000 7 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 8 0.0500 0.0500 0.0000 9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------- monte carlo statistics : number of mc runs : 100 mean cost function : 0.000000 minimal cost function : 0.000000 maximal cost function : 0.000000 ------------------------------------------------- Integrated fluxes with uncertainties [mol m-2] 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ex 0.90 0.11 1.91 0.21 1.84 0.20 1.99 0.22 2.09 0.23 diff 0.67 0.34 0.66 0.33 0.65 0.33 0.64 0.32 0.63 0.32 ent 1.12 0.30 1.61 0.43 2.10 0.56 0.93 0.25 2.00 0.53 adv 1.16 0.40 1.29 0.44 1.31 0.44 1.32 0.45 1.29 0.44 ncp -2.32 0.63 -4.17 0.79 -3.73 0.89 -3.66 0.69 -3.94 0.86 sim 1.53 0.00 1.29 0.00 2.16 0.00 1.22 0.00 2.07 0.00 obs 1.53 0.00 1.29 0.00 2.16 0.00 1.22 0.00 2.07 0.00 zcmp 10.44 0.00 50.02 0.00 8.18 0.00 -10.73 0.00 16.86 0.00 tcal 11.97 0.00 51.32 0.00 10.34 0.00 -9.51 0.00 18.93 0.00 tobs 11.97 0.00 51.32 0.00 10.34 0.00 -9.51 0.00 18.93 0.00 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 ex 2.27 0.25 1.28 0.14 1.34 0.15 1.78 0.20 2.15 0.24 diff 0.62 0.31 0.64 0.32 0.78 0.39 0.69 0.35 0.64 0.32 ent 1.49 0.40 1.20 0.32 1.45 0.38 1.55 0.41 2.72 0.72 adv 1.21 0.41 0.86 0.29 1.05 0.35 1.29 0.44 1.31 0.44 ncp -3.31 0.76 -1.81 0.61 -2.92 0.70 -2.78 0.78 -3.38 1.02 sim 2.27 0.00 2.17 0.00 1.70 0.00 2.54 0.00 3.44 0.00 obs 2.27 0.00 2.17 0.00 1.70 0.00 2.54 0.00 3.44 0.00 zcmp 4.58 0.00 -56.84 0.00 48.47 0.00 36.92 0.00 -49.21 0.00 tcal 6.86 0.00 -54.67 0.00 50.18 0.00 39.46 0.00 -45.77 0.00 tobs 6.86 0.00 -54.67 0.00 50.18 0.00 39.46 0.00 -45.77 0.00 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ex 1.89 0.21 2.14 0.24 2.36 0.26 2.24 0.25 1.67 0.19 diff 0.78 0.39 0.51 0.26 0.63 0.32 0.55 0.28 0.62 0.31 ent 1.13 0.30 1.60 0.44 2.83 0.77 2.19 0.59 1.00 0.27 adv 1.21 0.41 1.24 0.42 1.43 0.48 1.53 0.52 1.33 0.45 ncp -3.42 0.72 -3.48 0.78 -4.93 1.10 -3.86 0.95 -3.02 0.69 sim 1.59 0.00 2.01 0.00 2.34 0.00 2.66 0.00 1.59 0.00 obs 1.59 0.00 2.01 0.00 2.34 0.00 2.66 0.00 1.59 0.00 zcmp -57.21 0.00 36.12 0.00 80.58 0.00 -12.80 0.00 -73.63 0.00 tcal -55.62 0.00 38.13 0.00 82.92 0.00 -10.15 0.00 -72.04 0.00 tobs -55.62 0.00 38.13 0.00 82.92 0.00 -10.15 0.00 -72.04 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 ex 1.75 0.20 1.61 0.18 1.93 0.21 2.17 0.24 diff 0.60 0.30 0.78 0.39 0.63 0.32 0.50 0.26 ent 1.38 0.37 1.79 0.47 1.28 0.34 1.54 0.41 adv 1.22 0.42 1.16 0.39 1.23 0.42 1.24 0.42 ncp -3.07 0.72 -3.47 0.80 -3.34 0.72 -3.56 0.76 sim 1.89 0.00 1.87 0.00 1.73 0.00 1.90 0.00 obs 1.89 0.00 1.87 0.00 1.73 0.00 1.90 0.00 zcmp -28.09 0.00 43.82 0.00 -42.85 0.00 32.65 0.00 tcal -26.21 0.00 45.69 0.00 -41.12 0.00 34.55 0.00 tobs -26.21 0.00 45.69 0.00 -41.12 0.00 34.55 0.00 ------------------------------------------------- Average Integrated fluxes with uncertainties[mol m-2] Average 1-sg Uncertainty ex 1.86 0.21 diff 0.64 0.32 ent 1.63 0.43 adv 1.25 0.42 ncp -3.38 0.79 sim 2.00 0.00 obs 2.00 0.00 zcmp 1.96 0.00 tcal 3.96 0.00 tobs 3.96 0.00 ------------------------------------------------- Anomalies of Integrated Fluxes with uncertainties [mol m-2] 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ex -0.96 0.11 0.05 0.21 -0.02 0.20 0.13 0.22 0.23 0.23 diff 0.02 0.34 0.01 0.33 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.32 -0.01 0.32 ent -0.50 0.30 -0.02 0.43 0.47 0.56 -0.70 0.25 0.37 0.53 adv -0.09 0.40 0.04 0.44 0.06 0.44 0.07 0.45 0.05 0.44 ncp 1.05 0.63 -0.79 0.79 -0.36 0.89 -0.28 0.69 -0.56 0.86 sim -0.47 0.00 -0.71 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.77 0.00 0.07 0.00 obs -0.47 0.00 -0.71 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.77 0.00 0.07 0.00 zcmp 8.48 0.00 48.06 0.00 6.22 0.00 -12.69 0.00 14.90 0.00 tcal 8.01 0.00 47.35 0.00 6.38 0.00 -13.47 0.00 14.97 0.00 tobs 8.01 0.00 47.35 0.00 6.38 0.00 -13.47 0.00 14.97 0.00 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 ex 0.41 0.25 -0.58 0.14 -0.51 0.15 -0.07 0.20 0.29 0.24 diff -0.02 0.31 0.00 0.32 0.14 0.39 0.05 0.35 0.00 0.32 ent -0.14 0.40 -0.42 0.32 -0.18 0.38 -0.07 0.41 1.09 0.72 adv -0.04 0.41 -0.39 0.29 -0.20 0.35 0.04 0.44 0.06 0.44 ncp 0.07 0.76 1.57 0.61 0.46 0.70 0.59 0.78 0.00 1.02 sim 0.28 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.54 0.00 1.44 0.00 obs 0.28 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.54 0.00 1.44 0.00 zcmp 2.62 0.00 -58.80 0.00 46.51 0.00 34.96 0.00 -51.17 0.00 tcal 2.90 0.00 -58.63 0.00 46.21 0.00 35.50 0.00 -49.73 0.00 tobs 2.90 0.00 -58.63 0.00 46.21 0.00 35.50 0.00 -49.73 0.00 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ex 0.03 0.21 0.29 0.24 0.50 0.26 0.38 0.25 -0.19 0.19 diff 0.13 0.39 -0.14 0.26 -0.01 0.32 -0.09 0.28 -0.02 0.31 ent -0.50 0.30 -0.03 0.44 1.21 0.77 0.57 0.59 -0.63 0.27 adv -0.03 0.41 0.00 0.42 0.19 0.48 0.28 0.52 0.08 0.45 ncp -0.05 0.72 -0.10 0.78 -1.55 1.10 -0.48 0.95 0.36 0.69 sim -0.41 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.66 0.00 -0.40 0.00 obs -0.41 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.66 0.00 -0.40 0.00 zcmp -59.17 0.00 34.15 0.00 78.62 0.00 -14.76 0.00 -75.60 0.00 tcal -59.58 0.00 34.17 0.00 78.96 0.00 -14.11 0.00 -76.00 0.00 tobs -59.58 0.00 34.17 0.00 78.96 0.00 -14.11 0.00 -76.00 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 ex -0.11 0.20 -0.25 0.18 0.07 0.21 0.31 0.24 diff -0.05 0.30 0.13 0.39 -0.01 0.32 -0.14 0.26 ent -0.25 0.37 0.16 0.47 -0.35 0.34 -0.08 0.41 adv -0.02 0.42 -0.08 0.39 -0.01 0.42 0.00 0.42 ncp 0.31 0.72 -0.10 0.80 0.03 0.72 -0.18 0.76 sim -0.11 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.27 0.00 -0.10 0.00 obs -0.11 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.27 0.00 -0.10 0.00 zcmp -30.05 0.00 41.86 0.00 -44.81 0.00 30.69 0.00 tcal -30.17 0.00 41.73 0.00 -45.08 0.00 30.59 0.00 tobs -30.17 0.00 41.73 0.00 -45.08 0.00 30.59 0.00 ------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------- Integrated rates with uncertainties [umol kg-1] 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ex -3.9 1.9 8.0 1.5 2.2 1.3 17.1 2.2 18.6 2.2 diff 13.2 6.8 8.0 4.0 8.3 4.3 10.0 5.1 8.4 4.3 ent 20.7 5.6 24.9 6.7 24.8 6.8 18.0 4.9 24.9 6.6 adv 28.9 9.9 21.5 7.3 22.5 7.6 26.3 8.9 23.9 8.1 ncp -59.9 13.2 -58.0 11.1 -65.4 11.4 -71.1 12.0 -74.7 12.1 sim -1.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 -7.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 obs -1.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 -7.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 ex 16.2 1.9 8.4 1.3 7.7 1.3 5.1 1.6 14.5 1.9 diff 8.0 4.1 9.4 4.9 12.3 6.1 10.2 5.2 10.3 5.3 ent 21.7 5.9 17.1 4.6 25.0 6.5 22.4 6.0 31.4 8.3 adv 19.8 6.7 18.0 6.1 20.6 6.9 26.5 9.0 25.0 8.4 ncp -69.6 10.6 -53.5 9.5 -63.5 11.6 -58.7 12.3 -84.6 13.7 sim -3.9 0.0 -0.7 0.0 2.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 -3.3 0.0 obs -3.9 0.0 -0.7 0.0 2.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 -3.3 0.0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ex 14.8 1.9 18.3 2.2 8.2 1.3 7.7 1.6 4.8 1.4 diff 10.2 5.1 7.9 4.2 5.6 2.9 7.1 3.7 7.4 3.7 ent 16.5 4.5 23.1 6.3 27.1 7.5 24.9 6.6 16.5 4.5 adv 21.6 7.3 21.9 7.4 20.1 6.8 26.0 8.8 23.0 7.9 ncp -64.8 10.5 -67.2 11.6 -57.2 11.1 -69.3 12.0 -53.3 10.0 sim -1.7 0.0 4.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 -3.7 0.0 -1.6 0.0 obs -1.7 0.0 4.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 -3.7 0.0 -1.6 0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 ex 8.0 1.8 8.5 1.3 12.9 1.7 17.3 2.2 diff 9.1 4.7 10.1 5.1 7.3 3.7 7.8 4.2 ent 22.7 6.0 24.8 6.5 16.1 4.4 23.8 6.4 adv 28.0 9.5 20.1 6.8 20.8 7.1 26.8 9.1 ncp -68.5 12.5 -62.4 11.1 -55.2 9.6 -78.1 12.7 sim -0.7 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.8 0.0 -2.3 0.0 obs -0.7 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.8 0.0 -2.3 0.0 ------------------------------------------------- Average Integrated rates with uncertainties[mol m-2] Average 1-sg Uncertainty ex 10.23 1.71 diff 8.98 4.60 ent 22.43 6.03 adv 23.23 7.87 ncp -65.00 11.51 sim -0.14 0.00 obs -0.14 0.00 ------------------------------------------------- Anomalies of Integrated Rates with uncertainties [mol m-2] 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ex -14.15 1.87 -2.21 1.45 -8.03 1.29 6.88 2.22 8.36 2.24 diff 4.23 6.78 -0.98 4.01 -0.66 4.31 1.03 5.08 -0.57 4.31 ent -1.71 5.56 2.46 6.70 2.41 6.76 -4.46 4.88 2.43 6.61 adv 5.67 9.86 -1.77 7.30 -0.72 7.61 3.06 8.93 0.71 8.06 ncp 5.06 13.18 6.98 11.12 -0.36 11.45 -6.05 11.96 -9.71 12.06 sim -0.90 0.00 4.49 0.00 -7.36 0.00 0.46 0.00 1.22 0.00 obs -0.90 0.00 4.49 0.00 -7.36 0.00 0.46 0.00 1.22 0.00 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 ex 6.00 1.93 -1.86 1.29 -2.57 1.28 -5.18 1.59 4.29 1.92 diff -0.97 4.13 0.45 4.86 3.30 6.09 1.19 5.20 1.34 5.32 ent -0.76 5.88 -5.38 4.61 2.53 6.50 -0.01 6.04 8.95 8.26 adv -3.41 6.67 -5.25 6.09 -2.63 6.90 3.25 9.02 1.82 8.41 ncp -4.58 10.63 11.48 9.54 1.53 11.59 6.28 12.31 -19.55 13.71 sim -3.72 0.00 -0.54 0.00 2.16 0.00 5.53 0.00 -3.15 0.00 obs -3.72 0.00 -0.54 0.00 2.16 0.00 5.53 0.00 -3.15 0.00 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ex 4.57 1.87 8.03 2.18 -2.04 1.34 -2.53 1.58 -5.43 1.40 diff 1.21 5.11 -1.12 4.24 -3.38 2.86 -1.91 3.68 -1.62 3.74 ent -5.90 4.48 0.66 6.30 4.63 7.51 2.46 6.64 -5.93 4.49 adv -1.66 7.30 -1.33 7.41 -3.12 6.80 2.74 8.79 -0.18 7.87 ncp 0.18 10.49 -2.15 11.65 7.82 11.12 -4.32 12.01 11.66 9.97 sim -1.60 0.00 4.09 0.00 3.91 0.00 -3.56 0.00 -1.51 0.00 obs -1.60 0.00 4.09 0.00 3.91 0.00 -3.56 0.00 -1.51 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 ex -2.18 1.76 -1.72 1.32 2.68 1.71 7.09 2.24 diff 0.12 4.67 1.16 5.06 -1.67 3.75 -1.16 4.17 ent 0.23 6.02 2.34 6.51 -6.38 4.37 1.42 6.43 adv 4.79 9.55 -3.09 6.76 -2.46 7.06 3.59 9.09 ncp -3.50 12.51 2.56 11.06 9.76 9.63 -13.09 12.72 sim -0.54 0.00 1.24 0.00 1.93 0.00 -2.16 0.00 obs -0.54 0.00 1.24 0.00 1.93 0.00 -2.16 0.00 -------------------------------------------------